Containers were all over the place at Long Beach port in California last week. Apparently, there’s been a bit of a trade slump between Asia and the US, which has got everyone on edge about Trump’s tariff hikes potentially jacking up prices for American consumers and causing a global downturn. Bloomberg was all over it.
When the US made the grand announcement on April 9 that they were gonna hit pause on tariff hikes for 90 days with several countries, everyone let out a big sigh of relief. But let’s be real, trade tensions are still high, especially after China and the US agreed on May 12 to put a temporary halt on tariffs for 90 days to chat some more.
Negotiations have been moving along with other countries too. The UK just wrapped up a vague trade deal with the US, while Japan had a couple of rounds of negotiations. But hold up, Trump came out on Friday saying the US ain’t gonna talk tariffs with most countries, opting instead to send them letters with tariff rates laid out. Thailand seems to be lagging behind, which is making the business folks a bit antsy since the clock is ticking on their tariff suspension.
Dhanakorn Kasetrsuwan, the big shot at the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), pointed out that China is getting a bit of an upper hand with that extra month of no tariffs thanks to the 90-day pause. This means China can push out more products, make ’em cheaper, and snatch up market share in areas where Thailand is also trying to make a name for itself, like electrical appliances, machinery, and processed agricultural goods heading to the US. The TNSC is all about the government getting on it with the US to keep those tariff benefits and teaming up with businesses to figure out how to deal with whatever curveballs come their way.
Temporary price changes might be on the horizon in key markets, according to Mr. Dhanakorn. Who knows what that means for everyone involved, right?
Things are a bit up in the air, as analysts are scratching their heads over China’s negotiations. Mr. Dhanakorn thinks China might use this time to swing a special deal that extends the tariff pause, getting some sweet advantages for specific products, or even making some government-to-government deals. Thailand might get hit in a couple of ways: China swooping in with lower prices and snatching up markets Thailand’s been eyeing, or maybe getting some benefits if trade tensions ease up a bit. Tough call, really.
According to Kriengkrai Thiennukul, the big cheese at the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), the US-China trade deal pause doesn’t mean the conflict is over. Nope, we gotta brace ourselves for some potential hits to the economy, folks. The global economy is like a rollercoaster, especially with all these reciprocal tariffs the US is throwing around. Who knows how crazy things could get, right?
The FTI is waving a red flag at the government about a flood of goods coming in from China and other countries into Asia, Thailand included, after the US started slapping tariffs on everyone. This 90-day break gives the Thai government a chance to come up with new ways to protect local industries, Mr. Kriengkrai pointed out. The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking wants the government to crack down on those cheap Chinese products flooding the market, which is expected to get worse this year.
The current measures just ain’t cutting it, according to the committee. The Customs Department is throwing a 7% value-added tax on imports under 1,500 baht to slow sales, and the Thai Industrial Standard Institute is keeping a closer eye on products sold online. Local manufacturers are sweating bullets over the impact of harsh US tariffs on Thai exports and the possibility of getting overrun by Chinese imports, the FTI says. Chinese goods are like 20-40% cheaper than Thai ones, a recent FTI survey found.
Poj Aramwattananont, the head honcho at the Thai Chamber of Commerce, thinks the recent US-China trade talks could be a good thing for everyone. The Thai government should hop on the negotiations train with the US, the chamber’s got some proposals ready to roll. But hey, any talk of cutting tariffs better make sure Thailand’s agricultural sector is safe and sound, Mr. Poj says.
He also mentioned that some big Thai companies are itching to invest in the US, so fingers crossed these talks go well.
The TNSC is all about the thaw in US-China trade relations, seeing it as a good sign. Mr. Dhanakorn thinks we might see less tension in the short run ’cause both countries wanna keep things stable and smooth out the global vibe. But hey, we gotta keep an eye on the conditions of these talks, ’cause who knows what could happen next.
In the meantime, Thailand should expand its export game, especially in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and India, to not put all its eggs in one basket. Also, time to level up the competition by getting with the times in tech, going green, and stepping up product quality. FTAs are on the table too, with the TNSC throwing its support behind an Asean-US pact. China’s got one with Asean, but not the US, so why not give it a shot, right?
