Alright, let’s dive into this article about the impact of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs policy on Thailand’s economy. So, basically, the state planning unit has cut its economic growth forecast for this year from 2.8% to 1.8% due to the global trade war. Not looking good, right?
The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) secretary-general, Danucha Pichayanan, pointed out that Trump’s tariffs policy is directly affecting Thailand’s economy. The NESDC has modeled three global economic scenarios to analyze the potential outcomes. In the base case scenario, the US slaps a 54% tariff on Chinese imports, and China retaliates with a 34% tariff on US goods. This could lead to a global economic growth of 2.6% and Thailand’s economy growing by 1.8%.
The high case scenario paints a slightly better picture with reduced tariffs between the US and China, resulting in 2.8% global growth and 2.2% growth for Thailand. However, the low case scenario is a real downer, with the US and China escalating tariffs to extreme levels, causing global economic growth to plummet to 2.2% and Thailand’s growth slumping to 0.5%. Not really sure why this matters, but it seems like Thailand is in for a bumpy ride economically. Let’s see how they plan to navigate through this mess.
